Jasper, Texas will host the Turtlebox Bassmaster Open at Sam Ray Reservoir presented by Battery Tender Feb. 19-21.
Photo by Andy Crawford/B.A.S.S.
Feb. 12, 2026
High hopes in low water defines outlook for Bassmaster Open at Sam Rayburn
JASPER, Texas — Some of what Sam Rayburn normally has to offer will not be available during the Turtlebox Bassmaster Open at Sam Rayburn Reservoir presented by Battery Tender. However, local pro Keith Combs said that what remains should be more than enough to fuel an exciting East Texas showdown.
Competition days will be February 19-21 with daily takeoffs from Umphrey Family Pavilion at 7 a.m. CT and weigh-ins each day at the same location at 3 p.m.
Combs, the Progressive Bassmaster Elite Series veteran from Huntington, Texas has guided on Rayburn for about a decade, but he’s fished the lake competitively and recreationally for 35 years. Combs is not fishing this year’s event, but he won the 2022 Bassmaster Central Open on Sam Rayburn, so he knows this 114,500-acre Angelina River reservoir’s tendencies.
Most notable, he said, is the water level. About a week before the tournament, Rayburn stood at 155.06 feet, nearly 9 1/2 feet below full pool.
“I’ve never seen the lake this low in February,” Combs said. “Looking back, 1996 was the only time I’ve seen it not in the bushes in February. It’s gonna be a totally different Rayburn because there’s a lack of shallow vegetation due to the water level.”
On the upside, the lake’s shrunken playing field takes a lot of area out of the picture. Combs said he believes this could deliver great opportunities.
“You’re taking a massive lake and making it much smaller, so there’s gonna be a lot more concentrations of fish,” he said. “I think that’s gonna be the key, if someone gets around a concentration of fish.”
Notably, Turtlebox Bassmaster Opens Division 1 and Division 2 will both include two events with forward facing sonar and two without. Sam Rayburn, the first event of Division 2, will allow anglers to use this technology.
“Anglers will have to use forward facing sonar to catch fish just because of the way they’re gonna have to set up,” Combs said. “You’re not gonna have fish in patchy grass. There’s a couple of areas where that could play, but not for the win.”
Combs predicts deeper offshore patterns will dominate the event. Big main-lake points are popular late winter spots, while other fish will be relating to shad schools in drains and channels.
Rayburn has a lot of standing timber, especially in its shallower upper end, and Combs believes this habitat feature also could come into play.
“I think there will be a lot of fish suspended in the timber,” he said. “Maybe not big groups of fish, but big single fish. I think that could be the way to go.”
For the deep points, crankbaits, swimbaits, jighead minnows and Carolina rigs typically excel, while jerkbaits and jighead minnows do the job for those shad chasers. The latter two will also deliver in the timber.
Weather always factors into fishing tournament outcomes, but Combs notes a couple of particular points that could impact Rayburn. Probably the most significant detail will be the daytime highs in the upper 70s the week before the event and much of the tournament week.
“The main body of the lake has very good color to it,” he said. “We’ve had some recent rains, so the upper portions of the creek arms are going to be stained. Also, the warm weather is gonna make some fish move up shallow, especially into some of those stained areas.
“By the time the tournament starts, the water temperature will be in the 60s and there definitely will be some fish caught in that shallow mud. I don’t see that being the winning pattern, but I can see a good finish coming that way.”
While Rayburn occasionally sees early spawners bedding in February, Combs does not anticipate seeing anglers spending any significant time on such pursuits. Rather, he believes the year’s weather patterns will set up well for a prespawn scenario.
“We had a pretty mild winter, then back-to-back major cold fronts, but the water temperatures stayed pretty warm,” Combs said. “The week before the event will warm up the surface and the shallow water big time. I really do think there will be a big prespawn push.”
Combs isn’t ruling out the winter patterns, but with the week’s warming conditions, he’s expecting a shallower movement. That being said, anglers taking a contrarian approach could surge ahead of the field.
“There will be some big groups of big wintertime fish that are just out in the lake’s main body,” Combs said. “If somebody can find those, then they’re gonna have an advantage, because most people are going to look in that mid-range. They’ll be able to find some prespawn fish in that midrange, but they’ll be dealing with other people pressuring those fish as well.”
Good news is the entire lake should be in play. By contrast, years where Rayburn’s water level remains closer to normal and the grass flourishes, often find small stretches delivering most of the bites. This year, Combs believes the win could come from practically anywhere.
Offering a leaderboard outlook, Combs predicts it will take a two-day total of at least 40 pounds to reach Championship Saturday. His prediction for the winning weight — 74 pounds.
“The lake is fishing extremely good,” Combs said. “It’s been some of the best fishing we’ve had in the last 10 years.”
Jasper Development District No. 1 is hosting this event.
