Sunday, April 14, 2024

50/50 weekend on the way weather wise..

Date:

halfsun

 

After a nice run of dry and mostly sunny weekends, our luck may be running out. As of now, it appears the weather will be nice Friday and most of Saturday, but by late Saturday evening out west and overnight east the risk of showers and storms creeps back and Sunday looks to have a decent shot of showers and storms everywhere, with Lake Anna having the best shot of avoiding the rain.

Forecast Details:

Friday: Sunny and nice, high temps within a few degrees of 80.

Friday Night: Fair and Chilly, temps falling back between 55-60.

Saturday: Sunny in the morning with increasing clouds late. We will have a slight chance of showers and storms LATE out near Claytor Lake. High in the low 80s.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms. Chance of rain 40%

Sunday: Variably cloudy with a good shot of showers and then showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.  High temps around 80.

One forecasting tool is model trends: Here are the rain outputs from the GFS model that has shown a trend towards a wetter outcome starting late Saturday afternoon. This is the rainfall totals until 2am Monday morning.

Ledger reads like this: Green is under a half inch of rain, yellow is over a half inch and red is an inch.

Late evening yesterday:

0z

Note that the rain is confined to mostly the Blue Ridge west and amounts are in lighter shades of green, it’s really indicating showers where everyone may not get in on the action.

Early Morning run today:

6z

Note that there is broader coverage AND more areas of yellow from near LYH to ROA and up a good portion of 81. Will keep watching this trend to see how it plays out.  Will update late Friday evening about this weekends rain potential late Saturday into Sunday.

Our sunrise time is now BEFORE 6 am and Sunset time is AFTER 8:30 pm

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